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简介
The definitive assessment of how wireless communications will evolve over the next 20 years. Predicting the future is an essential element for almost everyone involved in the wireless industry. Manufacturers predict the future when they decide on product lines to develop or research to undertake, operators when they buy licences and deploy networks, and academics when they set PhD topics. Wireless Communications: The Future provides a solid, clear and well-argued basis on which to make these predictions. Starting with a description of the current situation and a look at how previous predictions made in 2000 have fared, the book then provides the contributions of six eminent experts from across the wireless industry. Based on their input and a critical analysis of the current situation, it derives detailed forecasts for 2011 through to 2026. This leads to implications across all of the different stakeholders in the wireless industry and views on key developments. ·Presents clear and unambiguous predictions, not a range of scenarios from which the user has to decide ·Includes chapters covering existing wireless systems which provide solid tutorial material across a wide range of wireless devices ·Offers a range of views of the future from high profile contributors in various areas of the industry and from around the globe, including contributions from Vodafone and Motorola ·Provides a comprehensive guide to current technologies, offering keen analysis of key drivers, end user needs and key economic and regulatory constraints This book, compiled by a renowned author with a track record of successful prediction, is an essential read for strategists working for wireless manufacturers, wireless operators and device manufacturers, regulators and professionals in the telecoms industry, as well as those studying the topic or with a general interest in the future of wireless communications.
目录
Preface.
Acknowledgements.
About the Author.
1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business.
2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate.
2.1 Introduction.
2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate.
2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005.
2.4 How Well did we do?
2.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010.
2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now?
2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future.
3 How to put Together a Forecast.
4 The Current Position.
4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position.
4.2 Mobile Communications.
4.3 Fixed wireless.
4.4 Short-range Devices.
4.5 Core Networks.
4.6 Broadcasting.
4.7 Industry Structure.
4.8 Summary.
4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM.
5 End User Demand.
5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical.
5.2 How People React to New Concepts.
5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending.
5.4 What they have Today.
5.5 What they want Now.
5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns.
5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem.
5.8 In Summary.
6 Technology Progress.
6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast.
6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws.
6.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws.
6.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’.
6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthrough.
6.6 Implications for the Futur.
7 Major World Events.
7.1 Introduction.
7.2 World Events.
7.3 Events in Related Industries.
7.4 Summary.
7.5 The Next Chapters.
8 Future Military Wireless Solutions (Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding).
8.1 Introduction.
8.2 Operational Context.
8.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications.
8.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems.
8.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems.
8.6 Emerging Communications Techniques.
8.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance.
8.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications.
8.9 Summary and Conclusions.
9 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro (Peter Cochrane).
9.1 In the Beginning.
9.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control.
9.3 Some General Trends.
9.4 What do People Want and Need?
9.5 What can People Expect /Have?
9.6 Likely Technology Developments.
9.7 Clusters of People and Things.
9.8 Finally.
10 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future (Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi).
10.1 Introduction.
10.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions.
10.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity.
10.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity.
10.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network.
10.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks.
10.7 Enabling Technologies.
10.8 New Business and Usage Models.
10.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers.
10.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities.
11 Interference and Our Wireless Future (Dennis A. Roberson).
11.1 Introduction.
11.2 History.
11.3 Spectrum Scarcity.
11.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration.
11.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches.
11.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems.
12 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications (Simon Saunders).
12.1 Introduction.
12.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011.
12.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016.
12.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026.
12.5 Conclusions and Summary.
13 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption (Stephen Temple CBE).
13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio.
13.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum.
13.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future.
13.4 Fourth-generation Technology.
13.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM?
13.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now.
13.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force.
13.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption.
13.9 Conclusions.
14 Assimilating the Key Factors.
14.1 Introduction.
14.2 Summary of the Current Position.
14.3 Summary of End User Demand.
14.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section.
14.5 Summary from the Contributors.
14.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors.
14.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement.
14.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together.
15 The Future Roadmap.
15.1 Introduction.
15.2 Predictions for 2011.
15.3 Predictions for 2016.
15.4 Predictions for 2021.
15.5 Predictions for 2026.
15.6 Key New Applications.
15.7 Key New Technologies.
15.8 Key Changes in Networks.
15.9 Major Growth Areas.
15.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful.
15.11 Implications for Stakeholders.
15.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000.
15.13 The Future in a Page.
15.14 And the Elevator Pitch.
List of Acronyms.
Index.
Acknowledgements.
About the Author.
1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business.
2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate.
2.1 Introduction.
2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate.
2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005.
2.4 How Well did we do?
2.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010.
2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now?
2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future.
3 How to put Together a Forecast.
4 The Current Position.
4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position.
4.2 Mobile Communications.
4.3 Fixed wireless.
4.4 Short-range Devices.
4.5 Core Networks.
4.6 Broadcasting.
4.7 Industry Structure.
4.8 Summary.
4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM.
5 End User Demand.
5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical.
5.2 How People React to New Concepts.
5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending.
5.4 What they have Today.
5.5 What they want Now.
5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns.
5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem.
5.8 In Summary.
6 Technology Progress.
6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast.
6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws.
6.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws.
6.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’.
6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthrough.
6.6 Implications for the Futur.
7 Major World Events.
7.1 Introduction.
7.2 World Events.
7.3 Events in Related Industries.
7.4 Summary.
7.5 The Next Chapters.
8 Future Military Wireless Solutions (Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding).
8.1 Introduction.
8.2 Operational Context.
8.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications.
8.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems.
8.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems.
8.6 Emerging Communications Techniques.
8.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance.
8.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications.
8.9 Summary and Conclusions.
9 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro (Peter Cochrane).
9.1 In the Beginning.
9.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control.
9.3 Some General Trends.
9.4 What do People Want and Need?
9.5 What can People Expect /Have?
9.6 Likely Technology Developments.
9.7 Clusters of People and Things.
9.8 Finally.
10 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future (Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi).
10.1 Introduction.
10.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions.
10.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity.
10.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity.
10.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network.
10.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks.
10.7 Enabling Technologies.
10.8 New Business and Usage Models.
10.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers.
10.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities.
11 Interference and Our Wireless Future (Dennis A. Roberson).
11.1 Introduction.
11.2 History.
11.3 Spectrum Scarcity.
11.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration.
11.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches.
11.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems.
12 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications (Simon Saunders).
12.1 Introduction.
12.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011.
12.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016.
12.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026.
12.5 Conclusions and Summary.
13 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption (Stephen Temple CBE).
13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio.
13.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum.
13.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future.
13.4 Fourth-generation Technology.
13.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM?
13.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now.
13.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force.
13.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption.
13.9 Conclusions.
14 Assimilating the Key Factors.
14.1 Introduction.
14.2 Summary of the Current Position.
14.3 Summary of End User Demand.
14.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section.
14.5 Summary from the Contributors.
14.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors.
14.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement.
14.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together.
15 The Future Roadmap.
15.1 Introduction.
15.2 Predictions for 2011.
15.3 Predictions for 2016.
15.4 Predictions for 2021.
15.5 Predictions for 2026.
15.6 Key New Applications.
15.7 Key New Technologies.
15.8 Key Changes in Networks.
15.9 Major Growth Areas.
15.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful.
15.11 Implications for Stakeholders.
15.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000.
15.13 The Future in a Page.
15.14 And the Elevator Pitch.
List of Acronyms.
Index.
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