The Research of Growth Potential and Business Cycle of China’s Economy

第一章 中国经济中长期增长潜力和经济周期研究
1．Overview
Chapter 1:The Research of Middle and Long Term Growth Potential and business Cycle of China s Economy
一、概述
二、“十五”及2006～2015年中国经济发展潜力分析
2．The Analysis of Potential of China s Economic Development in the Period of 10th 5-year Plan and 2006-2015
三、“十五”及2006～2015年中国经济增长预测分析
3．The Projection of Economic Growth in the Period of 10th 5-year Plan and 2006-2015
4．The Analysis of Factors of Middle-Long Term Growth Potential of China s Economy
四、中国经济中长期增长潜力因素分析
5．The Difficulties that China s Economic Growth Will be Faced in the Period of 10th 5-year Plan and 2006-2015
五、“十五”及2006～2015年经济增长所面临的困难
6．The Basic Policy Recommendation for Maintaining High Speed of China s Economic Growth
六、保持经济较快增长的基本政策建议
第二章 中国经济中长期增长的计量经济模型
Chapter 2:Econometric Model of Middle-Long Term for the Economic Growth of China
1．The Theoretical Bases of Design Model
一、模型设计的理论基础
2．Statistical Bases and Data Revise of the Model
二、模型的统计基础和数据修正
3．Basic Structure of the Model
三、模型的基本结构
4．Main Characteristics of the Model
四、模型的主要特点
5．China s Population and Long Term Forecast Model of the Economy
五、中国人口与经济长期预测模型
6．Varying Forms
六、变量表
第三章 中国经济中长期增长潜力数量模型
Chapter 3:Quantitative Model of Middle-Long Term Potential for China s Economy
1．Analyses of China s Economic Growth Since the Reform and Opening Up
一、改革开放以来中国经济增长动力分析
2．Several Problems in Future Long-Term Economic Growth
二、制约未来长期经济增长的几个问题
3．Tendency of Economic Growth in the Future
三、未来经济增长趋势
四、中国经济增长潜力数量模型
4．Potential Quantitative Model of China s Economic Growth
Chapter 4:Theoretical Observation and Study of Economic Cycle Wave Motion for the western Countries
第四章 西方国家经济周期波动的理论考察
1．Main Characteristics of Economic Cycle Wave Motion from the World WarⅡto Afterward of the Twentieth Century
一、从二次大战到20世纪后半期经济周期波动的主要特点
二、西方资本主义国家经济周期波动的含义及测定
2．Implication and Survey and Determination of the Economic Cycle Wave Motion for the Western Capitalist Countries
3．Theory of Economic Cycle Wave Motion for the Western Countries
三、西方国家经济周期波动的理论
4．Conclusion
四、结论
一、目前几种关于经济周期的“新理论”
1．Up to Now,“New Theory”about Economic Cycle
Chapter 5:New Characteristic of Western Economic Cycle Wave Motion and the Influence on China s Economy
第五章 西方经济周期波动的新特点及其对中国经济的影响
二、西方经济周期性波动的新特点及其形成原因分析
2．New Characteristics of the Western Economic Cycle Wave Motion and Analyses of Reason
三、西方经济周期性变动趋势分析
3．Tendency Analyses of the Western Economic Cycle Alteration
四、西方经济周期变动趋势对中国经济中长期增长的影响
4．Alteration Tendency of the Western Economic Cycle and the Influence of China s Middle-Long Term Economic Growth
第六章 中国经济周期波动原因及体制政策因素分析
一、中国经济周期波动的基本情况
1．Basic Situation of China s Economic Cycle Wave Motion
Chapter 6:The Reason of China s Economic Cycle Wave Motion and Factors Analyses for System of Organization and Policy
二、中国经济周期性波动的形成机制
2．Forming Mechanism of China s Economic Cycle Wave Motion
三、固定资产投资与国民生产总值周期波动分析
3．The Cycle Wave Motion Analyses about Fixed Assets Investments and GDP
4．The Cycle Wave Motion Analyses about Agricultural Product Output,Industrial Product Output,and Electricity Output and Transport Output
四、主要农业产品产量、工业产品产量以及发电量和货运量的周期波动分析
5．The Cycle Wave Motion of Public Financial Revenue and Expenditure, Financial Adjustment and Analyse of Economic Growth Wave Motion
五、财政收支周期波动、金融调控与经济增长波动分析
6．Factors Analyses for System of Organization and Policy of Economic Growth
六、经济增长波动的体制与政策原因
七、“九五”以来我国宏观经济调控政策的实践和经验
7．Experience of Macro-Economic Adjusted Policy Since Ninth Five Year
第七章 中国宏观经济周期波动模型研究
Chapter 7:China s Macro-Economic Cycle Wave Motion and Model Research
1．Forward
一、前言
2．Treat with Technology Problems about Economic Cycle Wave Motion Research
二、经济周期波动研究中有关技术问题的处理
3．Economic Prosperity Index System and Characteristic Analyses of Economic Cycle Wave Motion
三、经济景气指标体系和经济周期波动特征分析
4．Research Method Evaluation of Economic Cycle Wave Motion
四、经济周期波动研究方法评价
五、结论
5．Conclusion
6．Economic Wave Motion in China s Economic Growth
六、中国经济增长中的周期波动
Chapter 8:To See Function of Macro-Economic Policy From Economic Prosperity and Wave Motion
1．Summary of Research Methods
一、研究方法概述
第八章 从经济景气波动中看宏观政策的作用
2．Macro-Economic Policy Tools and Economic Running Environment
二、宏观经济政策工具与经济运行环境
3．Macro-Economic Analyses of Prosperity Wave Motion
三、景气波动的宏观分析
4．Macro-Economic Adjusted Policy to Influent of Economic Prosperity Wave Motion
四、宏观经济调控政策对经济景气波动的影响
5．Domestic Consumption and Exports is to Influence of Economic Prosperity Wave Motion
五、内需中消费需求与出口总额对经济景气波动的影响
6．Substantial proof Analyses of Prosperity Wave Motion
六、景气波动的回归实证分析
7．How does the Government deal with the Relation Between Economic Growth and Economic Wave Motion,to Realize Sustainable,Fast and Healthy Growth of the Economy
七、政府如何处理好经济增长与经济波动的关系，实现经济持续、快速、健康增长
Main References
主要参考文献