Managerial decision making:theory and practice

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
1.1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making
1.2 Trends Affecting Decision Making Today
1.3 Key Characteristics of Management Science for Decision Making
1.4 The Use of Models for Making Decisions
1.5 The Use of Software in Decision Making
1.6 Applications of Management Science in Business
References
CHAPTER 2 AVOIDING BAD DECISIONS: The Methodology of Decision Making
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Decision Making Traps
2.3 Decision Making Tips
2.4 The Rational Methodology for Decision Making
2.5 Identification of the Problem
2.6 Analysis of the System
2.7 Formulation of the Objectives
2.8 Initial System Design
2.9 Detailed System Design
2.10 Solution Implementation and Monitoring
References　 Managerial Decision MakingTABLE OF CONTENTSPART IIMODELS IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING45
CHAPTER 3 LINEAR PROGRAMMING
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Characteristics of LP Problems
3.3 A Maximization Problem
3.4 A Trial-and-Error Approach in Solving LP Problems
3.5 Graphical Solution of a LP Problem
3.6 A Minimization Problem
3.7 General Formulation and Assumptions of LP Models
3.8 Solving LP Problems
Problems
References
CHAPTER 4 USING SOLVER TO SOLVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Introducing the Model in Excel
4.3 Solving the Problem
4.4 Understanding and Analyzing the Solution-SOLVER Reports
4.5 Solving Integer Programming Problems with SOLVER
4.6 Solving Non-Linear Programming Problems with SOLVER
4.7 Conclusions
Problems
References
CHAPTER 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING
5.1 Introduction
5.2 An Example
5.3 Dual Prices in LP
5.4 Reduced Costs in LP
5.5 Changes in the Objective Function's Coefficients
5.6 Changes in the Right Hand Sides (RHS) of the Constraints
5.7 Evaluation of a New Activity
5.8 Conclusions
Problems
References
CHAPTER 6 INTEGER PROGRAMMING
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Formulating IP Problems with Binary Variables
6.3 An Investment Example
6.4 Formulating IP Problems with Fixed Costs and/or Discounts
6.5 Solving IP Problems
6.6 Heuristic Methods to Solve IP Problems
6.7 Conclusions
Problems
References
CHAPTER 7 MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Empirical Methods
7.3 Goal Programming
7.4 The Analytical Hierarchy Process
7.5 Using Expert Choice to Solve Multicriteria Problems
Problems
References
CHAPTER 8 STATISTICAL METHODS IN DECISION MAKING
8.1 Introduction to Forecasting
8.2 Key Concepts about Forecasting
8.3 The Moving Averages Forecasting Method
8.4 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method
8.5 Other Forecasting Methods
8.6 Linear Regression
8.7 Multiple Regression
8.8 Discriminant Analysis
8.9 Using SPSS for Statistical Analysis
Problems
References
CHAPTER 9 DECISION ANALYSIS
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Key Concepts about Decision Analysis
9.3 Criteria for Making Decisions under Uncertainty
9.4 The Expected Value of Perfect Information
9.5 Introduction to Decision Trees
9.6 Calculating the Risk Profile a Strategy
9.7 Sensitivity Analysis
9.8 Using Precision Tree to Solve Decision Analysis Problems
Problems
References
CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Key Characteristics of Simulation
10.3 Implementation of Simulation under Conditions of Uncertainty
10.4 Simulation of Queuing Systems
10.5 Simulation of an Inventory System
10.6 Analysis of Simulation Results
10.7 Using Simulation for Risk Management
10.8 Using Simulation for Business Process Reengineering
Problems
References
PART IIIIMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN PRACTICE227
CHAPTER 11 GETTING TO KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Determining Customer Satisfaction
11.3 Designing New Products
11.4 Sales-Advertising Response Analysis
11.5 Forecasting Sales of New Products
11.6 Identifying Areas of Improvement
11.7 Studying Product Positioning
11.8 Identifying Market Segments
11.9 Identifying Prospect Customers
Problems
References
CHAPTER 12 MARKETING AND SALES MANAGEMENT
12.1 Introduction
12.2 A Product Selection Problem
12.3 Design of Sales Network
12.4 Selection of Communication Media
12.5 Selection of Location
12.6 Design of New Product Marketing Strategy
12.7 Design of Promotion Strategy
12.8 Sales Strategy
12.9 Evaluation of Customer Value for CRM Implementation
Problems
References
CHAPTER 13 PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY
MANAGEMENT
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Production Planning-Selection of Production Mix
13.3 Capacity Planning
13.4 Outsourcing Management
13.5 Planning Production Personnel
13.6 Production Planning under Demand Uncertainty
13.7 Production and Sales Planning under Discounting
13.8 Selection of Production Technology
13.9 Sequencing and Scheduling Production Problems
Problems
References
CHAPTER 14 NETWORKS AND TRANSPORT PROBLEMS
14.1 Introduction
14.2 The Transportation Problem
14.3 Designing the Shortest Path
14.4 Managing Network Flow Problems
14.5 Designing the Minimum Spanning Tree
14.6 Planning Route Schedules with Multiple Vehicles
14.7 Scheduling an Airline's Flights
14.8 Project Management
Problems
References
CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Designing the Supply Chain
15.3 Evaluating a Company Acquisition
15.4 Planning Product Distribution
15.5 Planning Distribution of Hazardous Materials
15.6 Selection of Transportation Media
15.7 Design and Introduction of New Product
Problems
References
CHAPTER 16 MANAGING INVESTMENTS
16.1 Introduction
16.2 A Simple Investment Selection Problem
16.3 Selecting a Multi-Period Investment Portfolio
16.4 Investing in Real Estate
16.5 Multi-Period Investment Planning
16.6 Asset and Liability Management in a Bank
16.7 Deciding on Production and Capital Structure for a Family Business
16.8 Developing Effective Export Planning
16.9 Developing a Customized Portfolio among FTSE-20 Companies
Problems
References
CHAPTER 17 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN FINANCE
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Investment Appraisal
17.3 Investment Selection
17.4 Business Analysis for a New Product
17.5 Project Finance Decision
17.6 Stock Portfolio Management
17.7 Capacity Planning under Demand Uncertainty
17.8 Portfolio Value at Risk (VAR) Calculation
Problems
References
CHAPTER 18 HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Allocating Personnel Workload
18.3 Scheduling for Personnel Time
18.4 Recruiting Personnel Using Performance Score Cards
18.5 Recruiting Personnel Using Multiple Criteria
18.6 Implementing a Fair Bonus System
18.7 Selecting Training Program
18.8 Building up Personnel Motivation
Problems
References
CHAPTER 19 ORGANIZATIONAL REDESIGN
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Reorganization of Hospital Processes
19.3 Evaluation of the Efficiency of Bank Stores
19.4 Supply System Reengineering
19.5 Toll Station Management
19.6 Planning the Port Services
19.7 Factory Production Planning
19.8 Reengineering the Rank Xerox Supply Chain
References
CHAPTER 20 USING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN THE
WORLD
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Designing Financial Products at Merrill Lynch
20.3 Designing a Supply Chain at IBM
20.4 Managing Blood in New York City
20.5 Routing and Distribution Scheduling at Federal Express
20.6 Human Resources Management at Emporiki Bank
20.7 Fire Fighting in Canada
20.8 Managing a Supply Chain in the Philippines
20.9 Recycling Waste Lube Oils in Greece
20.10 Yield Management at American Airlines
References