简介
Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate in Economics for his seminal work in psychology that challenged the rational model of judgment and decision making, is one of our most important thinkers. His ideas have had a profound impact on many fields, but he has never brought them together in one book. Here, he explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the capabilities--and also the faults and biases--of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. Then he reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives--and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.--From publisher description.
目录
Table Of Contents:
Introduction 3(16)
PART I TWO SYSTEMS
1 The Characters Of The Story 19(12)
2 Attention And Effort 31(8)
3 The Lazy Controller 39(11)
4 The Associative Machine 50(9)
5 Cognitive Ease 59(12)
6 Norms, Surprises, And Causes 71(8)
7 A Machine For Jumping To Conclusions 79(10)
8 How Judgments Happen 89(8)
9 Answering An Easier Question 97(12)
PART II HEURISTICS AND BIASES
10 The Law Of Small Numbers 109(10)
11 Anchors 119(10)
12 The Science Of Availability 129(8)
13 Availability, Emotion, And Risk 137(9)
14 Tom W'S Specialty 146(10)
15 Linda: Less Is More 156(10)
16 Causes Trump Statistics 166(9)
17 Regression To The Mean 175(10)
18 Taming Intuitive Predictions 185(14)
PART III OVERCONFIDENCE
19 The Illusion Of Understanding 199(10)
20 The Illusion Of Validity 209(13)
21 Intuitions Vs. Formulas 222(12)
22 Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 234(11)
23 The Outside View 245(10)
24 The Engine Of Capitalism 255(14)
PART IV CHOICES
25 Bernoulli't Errors 269(9)
26 Prospect Theory 278(11)
27 The Endowment Effect 289(11)
28 Bad Events 300(10)
29 The Fourfold Pattern 310(12)
30 Rare Events 322(12)
31 Risk Policies 334(8)
32 Keeping Score 342(11)
33 Reversals 353(10)
34 Frames And Reality 363(14)
PART V TWO SELVES
35 Two Selves 377(9)
36 Life As A Story 386(5)
37 Experienced Well-Being 391(7)
38 Thinking About Life 398(10)
CONCLUSIONS 408(41)
Appendix A Judgment Under Uncertainty 419(14)
Appendix B Choices, Values, And Frames 433(16)
Notes 449(34)
Acknowledgments 483(2)
Index 485
Introduction 3(16)
PART I TWO SYSTEMS
1 The Characters Of The Story 19(12)
2 Attention And Effort 31(8)
3 The Lazy Controller 39(11)
4 The Associative Machine 50(9)
5 Cognitive Ease 59(12)
6 Norms, Surprises, And Causes 71(8)
7 A Machine For Jumping To Conclusions 79(10)
8 How Judgments Happen 89(8)
9 Answering An Easier Question 97(12)
PART II HEURISTICS AND BIASES
10 The Law Of Small Numbers 109(10)
11 Anchors 119(10)
12 The Science Of Availability 129(8)
13 Availability, Emotion, And Risk 137(9)
14 Tom W'S Specialty 146(10)
15 Linda: Less Is More 156(10)
16 Causes Trump Statistics 166(9)
17 Regression To The Mean 175(10)
18 Taming Intuitive Predictions 185(14)
PART III OVERCONFIDENCE
19 The Illusion Of Understanding 199(10)
20 The Illusion Of Validity 209(13)
21 Intuitions Vs. Formulas 222(12)
22 Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 234(11)
23 The Outside View 245(10)
24 The Engine Of Capitalism 255(14)
PART IV CHOICES
25 Bernoulli't Errors 269(9)
26 Prospect Theory 278(11)
27 The Endowment Effect 289(11)
28 Bad Events 300(10)
29 The Fourfold Pattern 310(12)
30 Rare Events 322(12)
31 Risk Policies 334(8)
32 Keeping Score 342(11)
33 Reversals 353(10)
34 Frames And Reality 363(14)
PART V TWO SELVES
35 Two Selves 377(9)
36 Life As A Story 386(5)
37 Experienced Well-Being 391(7)
38 Thinking About Life 398(10)
CONCLUSIONS 408(41)
Appendix A Judgment Under Uncertainty 419(14)
Appendix B Choices, Values, And Frames 433(16)
Notes 449(34)
Acknowledgments 483(2)
Index 485
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