繁荣的轮回——人口变动与经济增长的一个逻辑解释

第1部分中国经济学界的未解之谜
1问题的起因/00
1?1中国奇迹：经济高速增长30年/00
1?1?1经济实力快速增长/00
1?1?2从农业经济社会向现代工业社会的转型/00
1?1?3对外贸易的“引进来”和“走出去”/00
1?1?4人民生活从温饱到小康/0
1?2中国经济高速增长的成因/0
1?2?1高生育率积蓄了大规模的剩余劳动力/0
1?2?2剩余劳动力优势成功嵌入全球产业链/0
1?2?3经济主力人口的创业创新动力/0
1?32008年经济增速开始下行/0
1?3?1工业生产转入了全面过剩/0
1?3?2消费、投资增速下行和突然放缓/0
1?3?3传统的出口优势逐步趋弱并已消失殆尽/0 2经济下行的“两家争鸣”与质疑/0
2?1经济本不应进入中速增长阶段/0
2?1?1“中速增长常态论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
2?1?2对“中速增长常态论”的商榷/0
2?2经济下行不是外因所致/0
2?2?1“增速下行外因论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
2?2?2对“增速下行外因论”的商榷/0

目录第2部分学术争论与历史演变
3人口与发展：理论述评与事实/0
3?1人口与经济关系理论的回顾与评述/0
3?1?1适度人口论与人口控制主张/0
3?1?2《增长的极限》与人口资源悲观论/0
3?1?3市场机制调控家庭生育决策的基本过程/0
3?1?4人口流动与经济增长关系的研究述评/0
3?2人口增长与工业化发展/0
3?2?1人口增长是工业化的必要条件/0
3?2?2人口增长方式转型也是工业化的产物/0
3?3人口流动、城市化及工业化发展/0
3?3?1人口流动加速城市化的进程/0
3?3?2城市化与工业化发展的互动/0
3?4人口、工业化与生态环境的动态协调发展/0
3?4?1人口增长与资源的协调发展/0
3?4?2人口、工业化与环境的协调发展/0
3?4?3人口、工业化与生态环境的动态发展/0 4生育权与迁移权/0
4?1生育权与迁移权的界定/0
4?1?1生育权在个人和国家间的归属之争/0
4?1?2迁移权在个人与国家间不同的安排/0
4?2 生育权的经济学分析/
4?2?1生育权的经济学解释/
4?2?2生育权行使的经济学探讨/
4?3 迁移权的经济学分析/
4?3?1迁移权的经济学解释/
4?3?2迁移权行使的经济学探讨/ 5 世界经验：基于不同生育权和迁移权的配置/
5?1 基于不同生育权配置的国际经验/
5?1?1美国不干预的生育及经济发展/
5?1?2日本指导性计划生育与经济的先富后低/
5?1?3韩国指导性计划生育历程/
5?1?4中国台湾地区的指导性计划生育/
5?1?5计划生育政策在印度的流产 /
5?1?6不同生育权配置的国际经验总结/
5?2 基于不同迁移权配置的国际经验/
5?2?1美国的人口迁移自由/
5?2?2日本的人口迁移和住民登记/
5?2?3法国的迁移自由和流动人口管理/
5?2?4俄罗斯人口迁移及其低流动性/
5?2?5印度的人口迁移与贫民窟的形成/
5?2?6不同迁移权配置的国际经验总结/

第3部分中国人口生育管制的经济后果
6 “人口坑”与经济增长的陷阱/
6?1 “人口坑”深浅与经济高增长时间的长短/
6?1?1工业化阶段的“人口坑”与经济增长速度/
6?1?2中国“人口坑”与经济增长速度放慢/
6?2 人口增长变动对经济增长速度的影响/
6?2?1即期影响：人口增长对经济增长的影响/
6?2?2长期影响：人口变动的20年延期影响定理/ 7 人口结构失衡和老龄化的经济后果/
7?1 人口结构与经济排浪式变动及增长波动/
7?1?1人口变动与消费、投资和出口变动的数理关系/
7?1?2人口变动引致国民经济排浪式衰退/
7?2 未来经济长期承受的下行和老龄化压力/
7?2?1国民经济未来长期面临的下行压力/
7?2?2未来老龄化加剧的诸多难题/
第4部分中国人口流动管制的经济后果
8 人口进入城市和退出农村的障碍和问题/
8?1 流动人口市民化的进入障碍/
8?1?1中国户籍管理制度变迁与人口流动/
8?1?2社会保障与公共服务的不公平/
8?2进城农民工人口的农村财产退出障碍/
8?2?1农民理性经济人与退出资产障碍和机会成本/
8?2?2出租退出困境与其他退出方式比较/
8?2?3农地制度复杂性与建设征用为国有之弊/ 9 城市化流程的扭曲和消费塌陷/
9?1 “青出老回”与漂泊于城市/
9?1?1人口城乡钟摆式和不同地频繁流动/
9?1?2人口从农村到城市的“青出老回”/
9?1?3不返乡的农民工人口在城市中漂泊/
9?1?4大多数国家能够市民化的城市化/
9?2城市消费抑制和农村消费塌陷/
9?2?1流动人口干预制度下的城市消费抑制/
9?2?2“青出老回”流程与农村消费塌陷/


结束语/
参考文献/





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PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community
1Origin of the Problem/ 00
1?1Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 00
1?1?1Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 00
1?1?2Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern Industrial Economy/ 00
1?1?3“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 00
1?1?4From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 0
1?2The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 0
1?2?1High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 0
1?2?2Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into Global Industrial Chain/ 0
1?2?3Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major Economic Force/ 0
1?3The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 0
1?3?1Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 0
1?3?2Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of Consumption and Investment/ 0
1?3?3Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 0
2Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 0
2?1The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 0
2?1?1The Logic and Policy View of “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
2?1?2Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
2?2Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 0
2?2?1The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0
2?2?2Discussion over “External Causes of Economic Downturn”/ 0



Contents

PART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution
3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 0
3?1The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of Population and Economy/ 0
3?1?1Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 0
3?1?2“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population and Resources/ 0
3?1?3Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 0
3?1?4Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility and Economic Growth/ 0
3?2Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 0
3?2?1Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 0
3?2?2Transition of Population Growth as Outcome of Industrialization/ 0
3?3Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 0
3?3?1Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 0
3?3?2Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 0
3?4The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3?4?1Harmonious Development between Population Growth and Resources/ 0
3?4?2Harmonious Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3?4?3Dynamic Development among Population Growth, Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
4Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4?1The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4?1?1Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family and Government/ 0
4?1?2Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family and Government/ 0
4?2The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/
4?2?1Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/
4?2?2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/
4?3The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/
4?3?1Economic Explanation of Migration Right/
4?3?2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/
5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different Reproductive Right and Migration Right/
5?1The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/
5?1?1Nonintervention Experience of the United States/
5?1?2Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its Economic Up and Down/
5?1?3History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/
5?1?4Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/
5?1?5Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/
5?1?6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Reproductive Right/
5?2The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/
5?2?1Free Migration of Population in the United States/
5?2?2Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/
5?2?3Free Migration of Population and Floating Population Management in France/
5?2?4Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/
5?2?5Migration of Population and Formation of Slum Problem in India/
5?2?6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration of Population/

PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Planning System
6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/
6?1The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High Economic Growth/
6?1?1“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage and Economic Growth/
6?1?2“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/
6?2The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic Growth Rate/
6?2?1Immediate Influence: Population Growth over Economic Growth/
6?2?2Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Growth/
7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging Population Structure/
7?1Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation of Increase/
7?1?1Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/
7?1?2Population Change Leads to National Economic Downturn as Waves/
7?2The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/
7?2?1Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of National Economy/
7?2?2Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/

PART FOURThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population Flow Regulation System
8The Barriers and Problems of Population Entering Cities and Exiting Rural Areas/
8?1The Entry Barriers of theCitizenization of Migrant Population/
8?1?1Transition of Household Registration System and Population Movement in China/
8?1?2Inequality of Social Securities and Public Services/
8?2The Exit Barriers of Rural Property for Migrant Workers in Cities/
8?2?1Exit Barriers and Opportunity Cost for Farmers as Rational Economic Man/
8?2?2Dilemma of Renting to Exit and Comparison with Other Methods/
8?2?3Complexity of Rural Land System and Fraud of Acquisition as State-owned/
9The Twist of Urbanization Process and Consumption Downfall/
9?1“Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Drifting in Cities/
9?1?1Frequent Migration of Population among Multiple Destinations between Rural and Urban Areas in Pendulum Mode/
9?1?2Population Migration between Rural and Urban Areas as “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age”/
9?1?3Drifting Migrant Workers in Cities instead of Returning to Rural Areas/
9?1?4Urbanization with Citizenization in Most Countries/
9?2The Restriction on Urban Consumption and the Downfall of Rural Consumption/
9?2?1System with Intervention over Floating Population Which Restraining Consumption/
9?2?2Process of “Out at Young Age and Return at Old Age” and Consumption Downfall in Rural Areas/

Conclusion/
References/