Preface p. vii
Acknowledgements p. ix
1 A brief history of medicine and statistics p. 1
2 What is evidence-based medicine? p. 9
3 Causation p. 17
4 The medical literature: an overview p. 22
5 Searching the medical literature Sandi Pirozzo p. 30
6 Study design and strength of evidence p. 52
7 Instruments and measurements: precision and validity p. 62
8 Sources of bias p. 74
9 Review of basic statistics p. 87
10 Hypothesis testing p. 102
11 Type I errors and number needed to treat p. 113
12 Negative studies and Type II errors p. 122
13 Risk assessment p. 132
14 Multivariate analysis p. 145
15 Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) p. 150
16 Scientific integrity and the responsible conduct of research John E. Kaplan p. 162
17 Applicability and strength of evidence p. 170
18 An overview of decision making in medicine p. 179
19 Sources of error in the clinical encounter p. 196
20 The use of diagnostic tests p. 206
21 Utility and characteristics of diagnostic tests: likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity p. 211
22 Bayes' theorem, predictive values, post-test probabilities, and interval likelihood ratios p. 222
23 Comparing tests and using ROC curves p. 237
24 Incremental gain and the threshold approach to diagnostic testing p. 242
25 Sources of bias and critical appraisal of studies of diagnostic tests p. 254
26 Screening tests p. 267
27 Practice guidelines and clinical prediction rules p. 276
28 Decision analysis and quantifying patient values p. 288
29 Cost-effectiveness analysis p. 304
30 Outcome analysis p. 312
31 Meta-analysis and systematic reviews p. 319
Appendix 1 Levels of evidence and grades of recommendations p. 329
Appendix 2 Overview of critical appraisal p. 334
Appendix 3 Formulas p. 337
Appendix 4 Commonly used statistical tests p. 340
Appendix 5 Proof of Bayes' theorem p. 343
Appendix 6 Using balance sheets to calculate thresholds p. 345
Glossary p. 347
Bibliography p. 361
Index p. 373