Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities不确定判断：引发专家概率
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出版社： 2006-9-1
简介：Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. 作者简介 Professor Anthony O’Hagan is the Director of The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics at the University of Sheffield. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Probability and Statistics and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). The Department of Probability and Statistics is internationally respected for its research in Bayesian statistics, while ScHARR is one of the leading UK centres for economic evaluation. Prof O’Hagan is an internationally leading expert in Bayesian Statistics. Co-authors: Professor Paul Gathwaite – Open University, Prof of Statistics, Maths and Computing. Dr Jeremy Oakley – Sheffield University.
